I have updated the Machine Learning on Quantopian algo to use the new risk model as an optimizer constraint. I had to change the objective to a factor-weighted portfolio in order to pass the contest constraints. Additional research on what factors to include should help bring the cumulative returns to positive and allow anyone to submit it to the contest.

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Backtest from
to
with
initial capital

Cumulative performance:

Algorithm
Benchmark

Custom data:

Total Returns

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Alpha

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Beta

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Sharpe

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Sortino

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Max Drawdown

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Benchmark Returns

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Volatility

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Returns | 1 Month | 3 Month | 6 Month | 12 Month |

Alpha | 1 Month | 3 Month | 6 Month | 12 Month |

Beta | 1 Month | 3 Month | 6 Month | 12 Month |

Sharpe | 1 Month | 3 Month | 6 Month | 12 Month |

Sortino | 1 Month | 3 Month | 6 Month | 12 Month |

Volatility | 1 Month | 3 Month | 6 Month | 12 Month |

Max Drawdown | 1 Month | 3 Month | 6 Month | 12 Month |

from collections import OrderedDict from time import time import pandas as pd import numpy as np from sklearn import ensemble, preprocessing, metrics, linear_model from quantopian.algorithm import ( attach_pipeline, date_rules, order_optimal_portfolio, pipeline_output, record, schedule_function, set_commission, set_slippage, time_rules, ) import quantopian.optimize as opt from quantopian.pipeline import Pipeline from quantopian.pipeline.classifiers.fundamentals import Sector as _Sector from quantopian.pipeline.data import Fundamentals from quantopian.pipeline.data.builtin import USEquityPricing from quantopian.pipeline.factors import ( CustomFactor, Returns, MACDSignal, ) from quantopian.pipeline.filters import QTradableStocksUS from quantopian.pipeline.experimental import risk_loading_pipeline from zipline.utils.numpy_utils import ( repeat_first_axis, repeat_last_axis, ) # If you have eventvestor, it's a good idea to screen out aquisition targets # Comment out & ~IsAnnouncedAcqTarget() as well. You can also run this over # the free period. # from quantopian.pipeline.filters.eventvestor import IsAnnouncedAcqTarget # Will be split 50% long and 50% short N_STOCKS_TO_TRADE = 500 # Number of days to train the classifier on, easy to run out of memory here ML_TRAINING_WINDOW = 252 # train on returns over N days into the future PRED_N_FORWARD_DAYS = 5 # How often to trade, for daily, set to date_rules.every_day() TRADE_FREQ = date_rules.week_start(days_offset=1) #date_rules.every_day() class Sector(_Sector): window_safe = True class MeanReversion1M(CustomFactor): inputs = (Returns(window_length=21),) window_length = 252 def compute(self, today, assets, out, monthly_rets): np.divide( monthly_rets[-1] - np.nanmean(monthly_rets, axis=0), np.nanstd(monthly_rets, axis=0), out=out, ) class MoneyflowVolume5d(CustomFactor): inputs = (USEquityPricing.close, USEquityPricing.volume) # we need one more day to get the direction of the price on the first # day of our desired window of 5 days window_length = 6 def compute(self, today, assets, out, close_extra, volume_extra): # slice off the extra row used to get the direction of the close # on the first day close = close_extra[1:] volume = volume_extra[1:] dollar_volume = close * volume denominator = dollar_volume.sum(axis=0) difference = np.diff(close_extra, axis=0) direction = np.where(difference > 0, 1, -1) numerator = (direction * dollar_volume).sum(axis=0) np.divide(numerator, denominator, out=out) class PriceOscillator(CustomFactor): inputs = (USEquityPricing.close,) window_length = 252 def compute(self, today, assets, out, close): four_week_period = close[-20:] np.divide( np.nanmean(four_week_period, axis=0), np.nanmean(close, axis=0), out=out, ) out -= 1 class Trendline(CustomFactor): inputs = [USEquityPricing.close] window_length = 252 _x = np.arange(window_length) _x_var = np.var(_x) def compute(self, today, assets, out, close): x_matrix = repeat_last_axis( (self.window_length - 1) / 2 - self._x, len(assets), ) y_bar = np.nanmean(close, axis=0) y_bars = repeat_first_axis(y_bar, self.window_length) y_matrix = close - y_bars np.divide( (x_matrix * y_matrix).sum(axis=0) / self._x_var, self.window_length, out=out, ) class Volatility3M(CustomFactor): inputs = [Returns(window_length=2)] window_length = 63 def compute(self, today, assets, out, rets): np.nanstd(rets, axis=0, out=out) class AdvancedMomentum(CustomFactor): inputs = (USEquityPricing.close, Returns(window_length=126)) window_length = 252 def compute(self, today, assets, out, prices, returns): np.divide( ( (prices[-21] - prices[-252]) / prices[-252] - prices[-1] - prices[-21] ) / prices[-21], np.nanstd(returns, axis=0), out=out, ) asset_growth_3m = Returns( inputs=[Fundamentals.total_assets], window_length=63, ) asset_to_equity_ratio = ( Fundamentals.total_assets.latest / Fundamentals.common_stock_equity.latest ) capex_to_cashflows = ( Fundamentals.capital_expenditure.latest / Fundamentals.free_cash_flow.latest ) ebitda_yield = ( (Fundamentals.ebitda.latest * 4) / USEquityPricing.close.latest ) ebita_to_assets = ( (Fundamentals.ebit.latest * 4) / Fundamentals.total_assets.latest ) return_on_total_invest_capital = Fundamentals.roic.latest mean_reversion_1m = MeanReversion1M() macd_signal_10d = MACDSignal( fast_period=12, slow_period=26, signal_period=10, ) moneyflow_volume_5d = MoneyflowVolume5d() net_income_margin = Fundamentals.net_margin.latest operating_cashflows_to_assets = ( (Fundamentals.operating_cash_flow.latest * 4) / Fundamentals.total_assets.latest ) price_momentum_3m = Returns(window_length=63) price_oscillator = PriceOscillator() trendline = Trendline() returns_39w = Returns(window_length=215) volatility_3m = Volatility3M() advanced_momentum = AdvancedMomentum() features = { 'Asset Growth 3M': asset_growth_3m, 'Asset to Equity Ratio': asset_to_equity_ratio, 'Capex to Cashflows': capex_to_cashflows, 'EBIT to Assets': ebita_to_assets, 'EBITDA Yield': ebitda_yield, 'MACD Signal Line': macd_signal_10d, 'Mean Reversion 1M': mean_reversion_1m, 'Moneyflow Volume 5D': moneyflow_volume_5d, 'Net Income Margin': net_income_margin, 'Operating Cashflows to Assets': operating_cashflows_to_assets, 'Price Momentum 3M': price_momentum_3m, 'Price Oscillator': price_oscillator, 'Return on Invest Capital': return_on_total_invest_capital, '39 Week Returns': returns_39w, 'Trendline': trendline, 'Volatility 3m': volatility_3m, 'Advanced Momentum': advanced_momentum, } def shift_mask_data(features, labels, n_forward_days, lower_percentile, upper_percentile): """Align features to the labels ``n_forward_days`` into the future and return the discrete, flattened features and masked labels. Parameters ---------- features : np.ndarray A 3d array of (days, assets, feature). labels : np.ndarray The labels to predict. n_forward_days : int How many days into the future are we predicting? lower_percentile : float The lower percentile in the range [0, 100]. upper_percentile : float The upper percentile in the range [0, 100]. Returns ------- selected_features : np.ndarray The flattened features that are not masked out. selected_labels : np.ndarray The labels that are not masked out. """ # Slice off rolled elements shift_by = n_forward_days + 1 aligned_features = features[:-shift_by] aligned_labels = labels[shift_by:] cutoffs = np.nanpercentile( aligned_labels, [lower_percentile, upper_percentile], axis=1, ) discrete_labels = np.select( [ aligned_labels <= cutoffs[0, :, np.newaxis], aligned_labels >= cutoffs[1, :, np.newaxis], ], [-1, 1], ) # flatten the features per day flattened_features = aligned_features.reshape( -1, aligned_features.shape[-1], ) # Drop stocks that did not move much, meaning they are in between # ``lower_percentile`` and ``upper_percentile``. mask = discrete_labels != 0 selected_features = flattened_features[mask.ravel()] selected_labels = discrete_labels[mask] return selected_features, selected_labels class ML(CustomFactor): """ """ train_on_weekday = 1 def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs): CustomFactor.__init__(self, *args, **kwargs) self._imputer = preprocessing.Imputer() self._scaler = preprocessing.MinMaxScaler() self._classifier = linear_model.SGDClassifier(penalty='elasticnet') self.trained = False #ensemble.AdaBoostClassifier( # random_state=1337, # n_estimators=50, #) def _compute(self, *args, **kwargs): ret = CustomFactor._compute(self, *args, **kwargs) # reset the day counter so that we will begin training at the start of # the next _compute call self._day_counter = -1 return ret def _train_model(self, today, returns, inputs): log.info('training model for window starting on: {}', today) imputer = self._imputer scaler = self._scaler classifier = self._classifier features, labels = shift_mask_data( np.dstack(inputs), returns, n_forward_days=PRED_N_FORWARD_DAYS, lower_percentile=30, upper_percentile=70, ) features = scaler.fit_transform(imputer.fit_transform(features)) start = time() classifier.fit(features, labels) log.info('training took {} secs', time() - start) self.trained = True def _maybe_train_model(self, today, returns, inputs): if (today.weekday() == self.train_on_weekday) or not self.trained: self._train_model(today, returns, inputs) def compute(self, today, assets, out, returns, *inputs): # inputs is a list of factors, for example, assume we have 2 alpha # signals, 3 stocks, and a lookback of 2 days. Each element in the # inputs list will be data of one signal, so len(inputs) == 2. Then # each element will contain a 2-D array of shape [time x stocks]. For # example: # inputs[0]: # [[1, 3, 2], # factor 1 rankings of day t-1 for 3 stocks # [3, 2, 1]] # factor 1 rankings of day t for 3 stocks # inputs[1]: # [[2, 3, 1], # factor 2 rankings of day t-1 for 3 stocks # [1, 2, 3]] # factor 2 rankings of day t for 3 stocks self._maybe_train_model(today, returns, inputs) # Predict # Get most recent factor values (inputs always has the full history) last_factor_values = np.vstack([input_[-1] for input_ in inputs]).T last_factor_values = self._imputer.transform(last_factor_values) last_factor_values = self._scaler.transform(last_factor_values) # Predict the probability for each stock going up # (column 2 of the output of .predict_proba()) and # return it via assignment to out. #out[:] = self._classifier.predict_proba(last_factor_values)[:, 1] out[:] = self._classifier.predict(last_factor_values) def make_ml_pipeline(universe, window_length=21, n_forward_days=5): pipeline_columns = OrderedDict() # ensure that returns is the first input pipeline_columns['Returns'] = Returns( inputs=(USEquityPricing.open,), mask=universe, window_length=n_forward_days + 1, ) # rank all the factors and put them after returns pipeline_columns.update({ k: v.rank(mask=universe) for k, v in features.items() }) # Create our ML pipeline factor. The window_length will control how much # lookback the passed in data will have. pipeline_columns['ML'] = ML( inputs=pipeline_columns.values(), window_length=window_length + 1, mask=universe, ) pipeline_columns['Sector'] = Sector() return Pipeline(screen=universe, columns=pipeline_columns) def initialize(context): """ Called once at the start of the algorithm. """ set_slippage(slippage.FixedSlippage(spread=0.00)) set_commission(commission.PerShare(cost=0, min_trade_cost=0)) schedule_function( rebalance, TRADE_FREQ, time_rules.market_open(minutes=1), ) # Record tracking variables at the end of each day. schedule_function( record_vars, date_rules.every_day(), time_rules.market_close(), ) # Set up universe, alphas and ML pipline context.universe = QTradableStocksUS() # if you are using IsAnnouncedAcqTarget, uncomment the next line # context.universe &= IsAnnouncedAcqTarget() ml_pipeline = make_ml_pipeline( context.universe, n_forward_days=PRED_N_FORWARD_DAYS, window_length=ML_TRAINING_WINDOW, ) # Create our dynamic stock selector. attach_pipeline(ml_pipeline, 'alpha_model') # Add the risk pipeline attach_pipeline(risk_loading_pipeline(), 'risk_factors') context.past_predictions = {} context.hold_out_accuracy = 0 context.hold_out_log_loss = 0 context.hold_out_returns_spread_bps = 0 def evaluate_and_shift_hold_out(output, context): # Look at past predictions to evaluate classifier accuracy on hold-out data # A day has passed, shift days and drop old ones context.past_predictions = { k - 1: v for k, v in context.past_predictions.iteritems() if k > 0 } if 0 in context.past_predictions: # Past predictions for the current day exist, so we can use todays' # n-back returns to evaluate them raw_returns = output['Returns'] raw_predictions = context.past_predictions[0] # Join to match up equities returns, predictions = raw_returns.align(raw_predictions, join='inner') # Binarize returns returns_binary = returns > returns.median() predictions_binary = predictions > 0.5 # Compute performance metrics context.hold_out_accuracy = metrics.accuracy_score( returns_binary.values, predictions_binary.values, ) context.hold_out_log_loss = metrics.log_loss( returns_binary.values, predictions.values, ) long_rets = returns[predictions_binary == 1].mean() short_rets = returns[predictions_binary == 0].mean() context.hold_out_returns_spread_bps = (long_rets - short_rets) * 10000 # Store current predictions context.past_predictions[PRED_N_FORWARD_DAYS] = context.predicted_probs def before_trading_start(context, data): """ Called every day before market open. """ output = pipeline_output('alpha_model') context.predicted_probs = output['ML'] context.predicted_probs.index.rename(['date', 'equity'], inplace=True) context.risk_loadings = pipeline_output('risk_factors') evaluate_and_shift_hold_out(output, context) # These are the securities that we are interested in trading each day. context.security_list = context.predicted_probs.index def rebalance(context, data): """ Execute orders according to our schedule_function() timing. """ predictions = context.predicted_probs # Filter out stocks that can not be traded predictions = predictions.loc[data.can_trade(predictions.index)] # Select top and bottom N stocks n_long_short = min(N_STOCKS_TO_TRADE // 2, len(predictions) // 2) predictions_top_bottom = pd.concat([ predictions.nlargest(n_long_short), predictions.nsmallest(n_long_short), ]) # If classifier predicts many identical values, the top might contain # duplicate stocks predictions_top_bottom = predictions_top_bottom.iloc[ ~predictions_top_bottom.index.duplicated() ] # predictions are probabilities ranging from 0 to 1 predictions_top_bottom = (predictions_top_bottom - 0.5) * 2 # pull in the risk factor loadings risk_loadings = context.risk_loadings # Setup Optimization Objective # Factor-weighted portfolio objective = opt.TargetWeights(predictions_top_bottom) # Setup Optimization Constraints constrain_gross_leverage = opt.MaxGrossExposure(1.0) constrain_pos_size = opt.PositionConcentration.with_equal_bounds( -0.02, +0.02, ) market_neutral = opt.DollarNeutral() if predictions_top_bottom.index.duplicated().any(): log.debug(predictions_top_bottom.head()) risk_neutral = opt.experimental.RiskModelExposure( risk_model_loadings=risk_loadings ) # Run the optimization. This will calculate new portfolio weights and # manage moving our portfolio toward the target. order_optimal_portfolio( objective=objective, constraints=[ constrain_gross_leverage, constrain_pos_size, market_neutral, risk_neutral ], ) def record_vars(context, data): """ Plot variables at the end of each day. """ record( leverage=context.account.leverage, hold_out_accuracy=context.hold_out_accuracy, hold_out_log_loss=context.hold_out_log_loss, hold_out_returns_spread_bps=context.hold_out_returns_spread_bps, ) def handle_data(context, data): pass